Early prediction of circulatory failure in the intensive care unit using machine learning.

Intensive-care clinicians are presented with large quantities of measurements from multiple monitoring systems. The limited ability of humans to process complex information hinders early recognition of patient deterioration, and high numbers of monitoring alarms lead to alarm fatigue. We used machine learning to develop an early-warning system that integrates measurements from multiple organ systems using a high-resolution database with 240 patient-years of data. It predicts 90% of circulatory-failure events in the test set, with 82% identified more than 2 h in advance, resulting in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94 and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.63. On average, the system raises 0.05 alarms per patient and hour. The model was externally validated in an independent patient cohort. Our model provides early identification of patients at risk for circulatory failure with a much lower false-alarm rate than conventional threshold-based systems.

CASMAP: detection of statistically significant combinations of SNPs in association mapping.

SUMMARY: Combinatorial association mapping aims to assess the statistical association of higher-order interactions of genetic markers with a phenotype of interest. This article presents combinatorial association mapping (CASMAP), a software package that leverages recent advances in significant pattern mining to overcome the statistical and computational challenges that have hindered combinatorial association mapping. CASMAP can be used to perform region-based association studies and to detect higher-order epistatic interactions of genetic variants. Most importantly, unlike other existing significant pattern mining-based tools, CASMAP allows for the correction of categorical covariates such as age or gender, making it suitable for genome-wide association studies. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R and Python packages can be downloaded from our GitHub repository http://github.com/BorgwardtLab/CASMAP. The R package is also available on CRAN. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Genome-wide genetic heterogeneity discovery with categorical covariates.

MOTIVATION: Genetic heterogeneity is the phenomenon that distinct genetic variants may give rise to the same phenotype. The recently introduced algorithm Fast Automatic Interval Search ( FAIS ) enables the genome-wide search of candidate regions for genetic heterogeneity in the form of any contiguous sequence of variants, and achieves high computational efficiency and statistical power. Although FAIS can test all possible genomic regions for association with a phenotype, a key limitation is its inability to correct for confounders such as gender or population structure, which may lead to numerous false-positive associations. RESULTS: We propose FastCMH , a method that overcomes this problem by properly accounting for categorical confounders, while still retaining statistical power and computational efficiency. Experiments comparing FastCMH with FAIS and multiple kinds of burden tests on simulated data, as well as on human and Arabidopsis samples, demonstrate that FastCMH can drastically reduce genomic inflation and discover associations that are missed by standard burden tests. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: An R package fastcmh is available on CRAN and the source code can be found at: https://www.bsse.ethz.ch/mlcb/research/bioinformatics-and-computational-biology/fastcmh.html. CONTACT: felipe.llinares@bsse.ethz.ch. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Genome-wide detection of intervals of genetic heterogeneity associated with complex traits.

MOTIVATION: Genetic heterogeneity, the fact that several sequence variants give rise to the same phenotype, is a phenomenon that is of the utmost interest in the analysis of complex phenotypes. Current approaches for finding regions in the genome that exhibit genetic heterogeneity suffer from at least one of two shortcomings: (i) they require the definition of an exact interval in the genome that is to be tested for genetic heterogeneity, potentially missing intervals of high relevance, or (ii) they suffer from an enormous multiple hypothesis testing problem due to the large number of potential candidate intervals being tested, which results in either many false positives or a lack of power to detect true intervals. RESULTS: Here, we present an approach that overcomes both problems: it allows one to automatically find all contiguous sequences of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the genome that are jointly associated with the phenotype. It also solves both the inherent computational efficiency problem and the statistical problem of multiple hypothesis testing, which are both caused by the huge number of candidate intervals. We demonstrate on Arabidopsis thaliana genome-wide association study data that our approach can discover regions that exhibit genetic heterogeneity and would be missed by single-locus mapping. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel approach can contribute to the genome-wide discovery of intervals that are involved in the genetic heterogeneity underlying complex phenotypes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code can be obtained at: http://www.bsse.ethz.ch/mlcb/research/bioinformatics-and-computational-biology/sis.html.